If you could make all 7.5 billion people on Earth sit down and read a book of your choosing, what book do you choose and why?

First give me time to write it.

It would be an optimistic book. One which points out what’s wrong with the world today but which suggests how we can fix things.

It would require a different political system. One which fulfills the needs of the people rather than the profits of the rich. It would mean raising the living standards of the poor. That would lead to more industry and higher profits while also reducing crime.

It would draw attention to the fear that we needlessly face. For example you are ten times as likely to drown while taking a bath as you are to be killed by a terrorist.

It would point out that evolution has engineered us to be nice to each other. We work together better to improve things - that has survival value, rather than work against each other. We hear a lot about the ‘bad’ because our media considers bad news is more interesting. Bad news generates fear. Fear makes us demand action. Idiot politicians pander to this and their actions generate more bad news.

Sorry religion - you would be required to justify your existence. It’s not enough for you to defend your ‘faith’. Let’s look at ‘faith’ in terms of what it really means - a belief which does not depend on evidence, one which is not open to reason and discussion. Faith has no right to being secure from being questioned. Faith can’t move mountains but we’ve seen what it can do to skyscrapers. We may blame the Islamic faith for acts of terrorism but other religions cannot say their ‘faithful’ followers did not carry out brutal acts.

The book would draw attention to how we are damaging our planet and suggest ways we can fix this. We cannot continue to treat finite resources as though they were infinite. We need those resources to look further for new resources and we are unlikely to find those on earth.

Instead of war I would propose we work together on expansion into the last frontier. Space. We must colonize space to ensure the survival of our species. Certainly we can look to the moon and Mars but that’s NOT enough. We need to move further to the stars. When we do so we should take with us all the lifeforms we can collect. When we have moved out a radius of 30 light years from earth, then and only then can we think of Earth’s life being secure.

Is this all a pipe dream? It is until we make the effort to start.

A bang or a whimper?

The last sound - Huh?

Is the world going to end with a bang - or with a whimper? What about that bit in Revelations - The last trump?

The one thing we can assume is that the world will one day 'end' - even if that means waiting around for a few billion years until the sun expands to a red giant and swallows up the earth.

But what do people mean when they speak of 'the end of the world'? In fact they don't mean 'The end of the world.' They usually mean 'The end of our civilization,' or even, 'The end of humanity.'

Let's take a look at some doomsday scenarios.

• Impact events -
  The impact of a big enough asteroid or comet could create giant tsunamis, global fires, and cause a global winter from the dust it puts in the atmosphere. There is strong evidence that such an impact has occurred several times in the history of the Earth. It is highly probable that such an event was the cause of the extinction of the dinosaurs. The chances are that we would receive little or no warning of such an event. (Sorry Armageddon fans - it just wouldn't be noticed in time for Bruce Willis to go and blow it up). Astronomers have calculated, based on craters on the Moon, that during the last 600 million years the Earth has probably been struck by about 60 objects, 5 kilometers or more across. The smallest of these would release the equivalent of 10 million megatons of TNT, leaving a crater 95 kilometers across. Thats 200,000 times as powerful as the largest atom bomb ever detonated. it's also possible - but incredibly unlikely - that a major collision somewhere in our solar system could fill our system with enough debris to make life difficult on any body in the solar system.  Definitely a 'Bang' scenario.
• Interstellar wanderers - In the last few years we have also discovered interstellar wanderers which range in size and mass from asteroids to black holes. Some of these wouldn't even have to hit the earth to cause disaster. A black hole passing through or even near our solar system could dramatically affect the orbits of the planets and sending the earth out of the Goldilocks zone. Probably a whimper event with humanity being roasted or freezing.
• Volcanism - Throughout the history of the Earth there have been huge 'super volcano' volcanic eruptions which involve the outflow of millions of cubic kilometres of ejecta in a short period of time. By comparison, the biggest volcanic explosions recorded by history, are tiny. The dust and gases would poison the atmosphere and oceans and bring on a global winter in a way that may cause extinctions. This cause has been proposed for the End Cretaceous, End Permian, End Triassic, and End Jurassic extinctions. There are super-volcanoes at Yellowstone in the USA, Indonesia and New Zealand. Such an explosion may wipe out much of life on Earth but would not affect the Moon or other planets greatly. Definitely a 'Bang' scenario.
• Nuclear war -Apart from the destruction and radiation, a global nuclear war could throw sufficient dust into the atmosphere to cause a nuclear winter which would prevent crops growing for up to two years and bring about mass starvation. Definitely a 'Bang' scenario.
• Climate change - Rapid changes of climate may be capable of stressing the environment to the point of causing mass extinction. Such a scenario is suggested in the film 'The day after tomorrow'.

Whilst such a scenario would greatly inconvenience us, causing mass starvation and causing some species to become extinct, ice ages in the past seem to have had little effect on bio-diversity. Extinctions suggested to have this cause include: End Ordovician, End Permian, Late Devonian, and others. This one would be a shivering whimper.

• Gamma ray burst -
  
  A nearby gamma ray burst from a supernova within 6000 light years distance could cause enough radiation on the surface of the Earth to kill most of the larger animals 
• living there and destroy the ozone layer in the process. Insects would probably survive. Astronomers tell us approximately 1 gamma ray burst can be expected every 540 million years. This has been suggested as an explanation for the End Ordovician extinction event. A whimper scenario with a spectacular display in the sky.
• A new disease. It's possible that a new disease could develop, either by natural means or by genetic manipulation.
  Natural diseases such as plague, flu or COVID-19 can devistate but eventually we overcome these and although they can greatly inconvenience us, humanity survives. There have been several natural pandemics in the past but none of them came close to wiping out humanity. They did have a dramatic effect on civilization however. The black death killed from 20 to 80% of the population of towns, 33% overall of the worlds population. Labour became in short supply and it caused the end of the feudal system.
  Non-natural diseases could be created using genetic engineering to create a  disease against which we have no defence. Humanity, and the rest of the animal kingdom would have little or no resistance to it and only totally isolated communities would survive. It would take a true insane monster to deliberately produce such a disease, the monster/s putting themselves at risk. More likely such a disease could be produced by accident and released unintentionally.   A whimper scenario.
• Simulation shutdown.
  
  I'm sure you've seen the 'Matrix' films. Science fiction huh? Well maybe not! It's possible that we are living in a simulation. Consider the way in which computers have advanced. It won't be too long before they advance to the point where it would be possible to create a society in simulation (Sims 3 game?). Given a sufficiently advanced technology it would be possible to simulate an entire world in incredible complexity. Think that's unlikely? We could in fact be in such a simulation and not know it. If that were the case then it would be possible for the simulation to be shut down - or reconfigured as in 'Jokester' by Isaac Asimov. In that story scientists use a computer to analyse the origin of humour. The story ends with humour being removed and:
  '...they remained there, staring, feeling the world shrink down to the dimensions of an experimental rat cage - with the maze removed and something, something about to be put in its place.'
  There's not a lot we could do about it. One second we are 'alive' and the next - off. No sound at all.
• Nanotechnology. This is in effect a man made equivalent to a biological plague. Whilst nanotechnology (the creation of microscopic machines) could have enormous potential for good it could also cause a 'gray death' where the nano-machines convert the entire mass of the Earth to more machines. One of the earliest suggestions of this was featured in the remake of 'The Day the Earth Stood Still' where a robot broke up into nanotechnology bugs which proceeded to eat all traces of our civilization. An unlikely scenario? You would only need one of these nanobots to be created to start the process. Another 'whimper' scenario first proposed by Eric Drexler, in his book 'Engines of Creation' and was followed by Michael Crichton's book 'Prey'.
• Magnetic pole reversal. Geological evidence shows us that the Earth's magnetic poles reverse every 200,000 years on average. The last one was 700,000 years ago so we would seem long overdue for this. When it happens it will have a dramatic effect on the Earth. The main cause for concern is that the Earth's magnetic field which creates the protective Van Allen belts will disappear and Earth will be exposed to very high levels of solar radiation. Some scientists think the magnetic field is already weakening. This would be a 'whimper' event - maybe a good time to invest in sun-screen manufacturer shares.
• Runaway Greenhouse. 
  
  In this 'global warming' scenario, the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reaches a point where more heat is trapped in the atmosphere than can be radiated back out into space. The result is an unstoppable temperature rise over a period of years or tens of years, which would be sufficient to wipe out most forms of life very quickly. Venus, where temperatures at the surface are high enough to melt lead, is affected by this phenomenon. It's possible that the release of carbon dioxide and methane into the Earth's atmosphere could trigger the release of trapped methane stored on the oceans floors and in permafrost causing this effect. The amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has been much higher in the past however so this is very uncertain. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas - it has four times the effect of carbon dioxide and is far more plentiful in the atmosphere (1-4 % water vapour; 0.04% carbon dioxide). It may be that the Earth's oceans will absorb whatever we release. Despite all the research and climate models created there is still a great deal of uncertainty about climate change. The two things we are certain about are:
  • The climate is changing.
  • Doing things which make matters worse are bad ideas
  Again a 'whimper' event.
• Superseded by technology. Eventually we will create an artificial intelligence which could replace us as the dominant intelligence on this planet. Something like the scenario on which the Terminator movies are based. The war between it and us would be a bang event. Of course we could carefully program such intelligences with something like the laws of robotics suggested by Isaac Asimov and it could go too far the other way with such intelligences stifling our future development by being over protective - a whimper event. Recent developments in computer technology make it possible for computers to model the human brain. You should also keep an eye on memristor technology which promises to make faster, more capable, analogue computers in a smaller space. It should start to change computers eventually.
• Global Snowball. The very reverse of the runaway greenhouse. Dust from volcanoes, a decrease in solar output or impact events could cause a winter which freezes the oceans. This increases the amount of heat reflected and the temperature in summer is never enough to melt the ice. A very chilly 'whimper' event where we would desperately try to induce a greenhouse effect to solve it!
• Solar old age.
  
  As the Sun uses up all its hydrogen fuel, helium at it's core will start nuclear fusion causing an increase in solar temperature. The result is a gradual increase in size. This process will continue until, around 5 billion years from now, the Sun will be 100 million miles across - encompassing the entire orbit of the Earth. Life will have been extinguished on our planet long before that. The seas will boil off and all gas will be blown away from the Earth by solar storms. It is estimated that 1 billion years from now, the temperature of the Earth will be similar to present-day Venus making life untenable. Given a billion years this will be a long drawn out 'whimper' where our descendants (if we have any by then) will probably bear little resemblance to us today.
• Alien invasion.
  
  Could it be the might be an alien invasion on the lines of 'Independence Day', 'Battlefield Earth' or 'War of the Worlds'. If we were to face a hostile advanced intelligence would we really have any chance against them? Probably a 'Bang' event. Personally it is my belief that any civilization advanced enough to cross interstellar space would also have advanced socially and be less warlike than humans.
• Uploads. This is an alternative to developing artificial intelligence which supersedes us. It may be that we will develop the ability to transfer our consciousness to a computer by 'uploading our brains'. If that were the case then many would choose this as an alternative to death. Once this is the case human intelligence can evolve at an ever increasing rate as processors become more powerful, faster and storage capacities increase. The upload would be able to redesign itself and eventually uploads would swamp the 'normal' humans. The question here is whether an upload could count as being human? Humanity as we know it today would wither away. A whimper event.
• Running out of resources. Imagine what the earth would be like if we were no longer able to depend on it for raw materials. 
  • What if we run out of oil and natural gas. These vital materials supply much of our energy and the chemicals from which we make plastics and other things. These fossil fuels are becoming ever harder to find and eventually it will cost more to extract them than they are worth.
  • What if we run out of metal ores? Some are abundant now but will this be true in the future if we continue to use them at an ever increasing rate?
  • There are some rare materials which are essential  for our electronic circuitry. What happens if we can't find new supplies?
  Of course people say, "We can use robots to do deep mining, mine the oceans or get raw materials from outer space." Is that  true? There are certainly abundant resources, especially in space, but what if we can no longer get to these due to the lack of materials to construct our robots, submersible miners and spaceships? At the moment we lack the will to pay for these expensive projects even if the potential rewards are vast. Eventually there will come a point where we simply cannot undertake this sort of project and our civilization may wither away. - A whimper event.
• Extremism. This has always existed but today we are far more aware of it. it is too easy to close our eyes to reality and blame others for the failure of society. We blame other political parties, religions, people from another  country, guns, 'big pharma', the rich, the poor. Conspiracy theories abound. We do not check items that appeal to our 'feelings' and that re-enforces our mistaken beliefs. Throughout history we have followed despots waving flags in patriotic fervour and blaming 'them' - whoever they are, for the ills of society. It's getting worse! Extremism is on the rise and has led already to horrendous incidents such as 9/11, genocide and civil war. Will there come a point when law and order breaks down completely and governments fall?
• Disparity between rich and poor. The richest 1%  already own more than the remaining 99%. 
• Solar flare
• Divine intervention. Most religions suggest that there will come a time when Man's purpose on Earth is achieved and God/the Gods call an end where the good people are separated from the evil ones.
  
  • In the Christian Biblical account of the Last Judgment, the End of the World is preceded by War, Conquest, Pestilence and Famine, the so-called "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse" and the blowing of seven trumpets. It's been expected since about AD 60.
  • Islam nails the Apocalypse down to a formula in the Qur'an, thanks to prophecies by Muhammad. It's the apocalypse when 'x' amount of famine is multiplied by 'y' amount of drought, divided by the square root of 'z' infidels. (It's any day now, in case you were wondering.) Only Allah will know the exact date however but we can watch out for: Fire, Floods, Pestilence, Wars, Rumours of wars, Strange lights in the skies, The Second Coming, A virgin birth, The birth of the Antichrist, A number of false Christs and/or Messiahs, Cloning, Identifying marks being placed on the population at large (embedded RFID chip anyone?), Famine, Earthquakes and The Rapture where true believers will be whisked away to heaven.
  • The Hindus believe that the universe is running a cycle which will culminate in a Cosmic Reboot at the end of the Fourth Age (which we are currently enjoying). Currently the world exists in the Age of Kali, the god of destruction. Kali rules over an age of strife, anger and war on earth, which will end with the destruction of everything to pave the way for a new world. Unlike the Christians and Muslims, the Hindus don't believe this event is coming any time soon.
  • Buddhists believe that the seeds of the ending of the universe are present in the creation of the universe. (Quite in tune with cosmology). The "Buddha of our time", Shakyamuni Buddha, did not say he was the first Buddha. He did speak of the end of illusion which would change how we see the universe. In Tibetan Buddhism, it is predicted that the physical universe will end with earth and air being subsumed into water and fire, and all will dissolve into space. Within this cosmology, the end is predicted to be a long way off in the future as there will be 1,000 Buddhas who appear in this fortunate kalpa (great eon).
  < li>The Mayans too believed in a cyclic world. Their highly detailed and accurate calendar is a list of days in the Fourth Sun, the current cycle of the world. The calendar simply ended on Dec. 21, 2012 at 11:12 am UT (the winter solstice), and the Mayans did not offer a calendar addendum to specify anything much happening after that. No doubt, had they still been around, they would have produced a new calendar for the next cycle. Since it's now 2014, I think we can safely discount a Mayan doomsday.
• The Jews believe they are God's chosen people and that the Messiah will arrive in the future and gather them into Israel. There will be a general resurrection of the (Jewish?) dead, and the Jerusalem Temple destroyed in 70 CE will be rebuilt. I'm not sure on what Jews believe will happen then or to the rest of the world. Perhaps someone more knowledgeable could enlighten me?
• Zoroastrians believe in a single supreme god Ahura Mazda and an evil spirit Angra Mainyu who opposes. At the end of time there will be a cosmic conflict involving the entire universe. Humanity will be required to choose which to follow. Evil, and the Spirit of Evil, will be completely destroyed at the end of time. Eventually, everything will be purified. Even the occupants of hell will be released.


So lets see - that's 4 'bangs', ten 'whimpers', a 'last trump' and an 'off'. It seems the whimpers have it.
Further reading :
1. Do we live in a computer simulation?.
2. The Future of Humanity
3. Accidents, Malice and "Gray Goo"
4. If Uploads Come First
5. Yellowstone super volcano

How humans and computers follow instructions

Years ago, when I taught Information technology, I used two stories to explain the difference between how computers and people followed instructions.

1. People are rubbish at following the simplest of instructions.

I'd ask the class to all point at the brainiest pupil in the room and then select that person as my victim to demonstrate. I'd bring them out in front of the class and tell them:

Teacher "I'm going to say three simple words with a pause between each word. All you have to do is repeat the word. Here's the first - Cat."

Pupil  "Cat."

Teacher "Rhino"

Pupil "Rhino"

Teacher "WRONG!"

Pupil, looking flustered "What was wrong? I said Rhino."

Teacher You failed. The third word was the word 'WRONG'.

People think about their answers - computers just do what they are told to do.

2. Computers do EXACTLY what you tell them to do.

Imagine a boy with a computer instead of a brain. he is woken up one morning and told the following by his mother.
"Run down to the shop and get a loaf of bread. Take £2 from my purse on the kitchen table. And for heavens sake - Get dressed"
The boy immediately runs to the nearest shop. It's a butcher's shop and doesn't sell bread so he waits there until someone comes in with a loaf of bread. That may take a while. Eventually a little old lady comes in with a loaf of bread in her shopping basket.
The boy wasn't told to pay for the bread so he 'gets' it. Effectively he steals it from her.
The boy wasn't told to come back but the next instruction was to get £2 from the purse on the kitchen table so he does come back.
The purse isn't on the kitchen table. it's on a work surface at the side. So he waits again for the purse to move to the table. He doesn't put the bread away because he wasn't told to do that.
When the purse is eventually on the table he tries to take £2 from it. If the purse only has five pound notes in it he is again stuck waiting.
When the boy eventually has a £2 coin only then does he get dressed.

Humans take bad instructions and correct them. They decide the best order to do them in and include missing instructions. Computers can't do that. We won't have true Artificial Intelligence until a computer can follow the second task and get it right.

A viral post (and how to protect yourself)

Do you understand how viruses spread? Knowing this can help safeguard your health. That's particularly important if you want to minimise your risk in the event of a COVID-19 coronavirus or flu pandemic. It can help protect you from the common cold too.

Back in 2011 my wife and I wrote the second book in our A Vested Interest series. In it we figured out how a benign virus could be deliberately spread to infect as many people as possible in as short a time as possible. We pressured an antagonist into doing the job and carry any possible blame. Here's what he was told to do:

“We have a little task for you,” Sir Richard said. “Take these cans of antiseptic. Spray it on this cloth, and then use it in Hexham. Visit every single pub there.”

“Go to the toilets,” Lady Triplet said. “Spray the door handle or plate of each toilet and stall and give them a quick wipe. We want them nice and shiny.”

“Don’t worry, Mr. Liu,” Juanita said with mocked respect.” It won’t hurt you. In fact, it’ll do you good.”

Richard smirked. “If anyone asks, why you’re doing this, tell them you’re mysophobic, a clean freak.”

Donna softly chuckled, watching Liu flip his attention from one side of the table to the other. “Next, put on a pair of these gloves,” she said and slid a box to the end of the table. “Spray them and go shopping.”

“Visit all the supermarkets, department stores, fast food shops, everywhere you can.” John chuckled; enjoying the look of horror on Liu’s face. “Make a trip to the hospital and browse through the magazines and leaflets.”

“Be nosy,” Gary said. “Touch everywhere. Don’t forget things like lift buttons, shopping trolleys, children’s rides, handrails, touchscreens. You get the idea.”

“Why? What is this stuff?”

“Surely, you can guess, John,” Sir Richard said.

In this clip the spray Liu was given really was an antiseptic, the virus had already been released. Liu thought he would be spreading the immortality virus though.

This clip demonstrates how many corona viruses can be spread. They are not just the COVID-19 'Wuhan coronavirus' the common cold is a coronavirus  and flu is spread in a similar way. They can spread directly by droplets from coughs and sneezes but they can also be spread by contact with an infected surface. Once on your hands you can increase the chance of infection by eating, touching your lips or nose or particularly by touching your eyes. You would be surprised how often we do that without noticing it.

Time can play a big part in this. Most viruses can't survive long as infectious agents outside their host. Under ideal conditions, a damp cool surface hidden from sunlight it's possible for viruses such as these to survive for nine days outside a living host. The examples mentioned in our story are good targets for passing on infection though.

So how can you protect yourself? If you are going out shopping:

• wear gloves. 
• avoid touching any part of your face if you can and if you must rub your eyes then use a knuckle rather than a fingertip.
• Wash your hands often, especially when you get home.
• While out, use hand sanitizer. Get your children to use it also.
• Wear eye protection of some sort.

The older you are, the more you are at risk as this image from Statista shows. For those people maybe it's time to get your groceries delivered if you can.

What about if you are younger? Can you safely risk catching Covid-19? The answer to that is still 'no'. The reason that it's so devastating to the elderly is that Covid-19 is very proficient at creating senescent cells. The common cold does this too but to a lesser extent. 'Senescent' may not be a word you are familiar with. It means 'old'. In cellular biology a senescent cell is defined as 'no longer capable of dividing but still alive and metabolically active.' These are the cells which make you age! Covid-19 (and the common cold) kills younger people but very slowly. It's the reason that the symptoms of 'long covid' are easily recognised by the elderly as, "that's how I feel." If your body is already full of senescent cells due to age then a sudden influx of extra ones can easily kill you.

What about a mask? The chances are that wouldn't be very effective. People find them uncomfortable, they feel stupid wearing them and many don't fit very well. They won't protect you from contact with an infected surface. They will be useful in preventing the spread of the virus from an infected person though. They easily catch the relatively large particles exhaled but by the time these get to you from someone else they will have evaporated enough to pass through a mask. Keep your distance from others if you can and especially avoid those shouting or singing.

When the COVID-19 'Wuhan' coronavirus becomes a serious problem in your area then bear these hints in mind.

And if you want the 'Dark Secrets' book, it's available as an ebook via books2read.com/dse. It's the second book of the series. The first is available free.

Update May 2021

The #Covid19 pandemic has hit India badly and that's something which the whole world should help out with or we are in danger of an even worse pandemic.

Viruses evolve. If a person is infected with two different viruses then there is the possibility that they will merge to create a new virus. Currently in Asia there is a potentially dangerous Nipah virus spread through bat droppings and urine which can infect humans. It kills 40-45% of all those infected but it isn't passed from person to person. 

It's a matter of time before someone in India is infected with both Covid-19 and the Nipah virus. When that happens there's a chance of a new virus evolving which is spread like Covid-19 but as deadly as Nipah.

We have a good reason to be scared of this!

How Jeremy Corbyn should make his position on Brexit clear.

Jeremy Corbyn refused nine times to be drawn on his position on Brexit and was much taunted by it in the election debate. This is how I think he should resolve this:

"Although the 2016 referendum result indicated a 52/48 percent split, the number voting 'Leave' represented only 37% of the electorate. This is NOT a majority. Neither was there a majority in  the 1975 referendum  when 63% of voters chose to stay in the then Common Market. That represented only 43% of the electorate. I stand for a government which does not accept that the wishes of a minority should be used to make decisions for the majority. 
The referendum has caused a great deal of division in the UK population and in Parliament. It has proved impossible to negotiate acceptable terms of leaving which Parliament will accept.We recognise that leaving without an agreed settlement will cause hardship in both the UK and in Europe. 
The labour party will therefore use the result of the 2016 referendum as an indication that there is a great deal of dissatisfaction with the EU. Over the next year we will set up a commission to establish why so many in the UK,  and indeed in the other members of the EU, are against membership of the EU. We will work with the EU to fix those things that are perceived as wrong and at the end of that time will hold a further referendum. If 50+ percent of the electorate (not just those that vote) vote one way or another we will consider the matter resolved and take appropriate action.
My own personal opinion on Brexit does not matter - it is the will of the people which counts."